SharkWater Trading  •  Income Desk • Mortgage REIT Orchid Island Marks Book Value Down 16.6 Percent in One Quarter. The $0.10 Dividend Did Not Move. October 26, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Orchid Island Capital (NYSE: ORC) estimated its September 30, 2026 book value at $6.02 per share, down $1.20 from June 30, 2026. That is a 16.6 percent drop in one quarter (our arithmetic: $1.20 divided by an implied $7.22). Estimated Q3 GAAP loss was $0.90 per share and total return on equity was (12.5) percent. The company still declared a $0.10 monthly dividend, which annualizes to 19.9 percent of the new book value (our arithmetic). The market price and the premium or discount to book are NOT VERIFIED here. What the filing says The October 14, 2026 8-K exhibit lays out the preliminary quarter. Orchid declared $0.30 per share in dividends during Q3, so the $1.20 loss in book value is the part the payout did not cover. The numbers tie: a $1.20 book decline plus $0.30 of dividends on $7.22 gives the reported (12.5) percent return. Item Figure As of Estimated book value per share $6.02 Sep 30, 2026 Change from prior quarter-end -$1.20 vs Jun 30, 2026 Estimated Q3 GAAP loss per share -$0.90 Q3 2026, preliminary Net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and derivatives about $1.17 per share Q3 2026 Total return on equity (12.5)% Q3 2026 October monthly dividend $0.10 Ex-date Oct 30, pay Nov 27, 2026 Shares outstanding 194,661,864 Sep 30, 2026 Shares outstanding 192,992,160 Oct 14, 2026 Total borrowings about $10.36 billion Sep 30, 2026 Weighted average repo rate 3.99% Sep 30, 2026 Estimated stockholders' equity about $1.2 billion Sep 30, 2026 Source: Orchid Island Capital Form 8-K exhibit 99, filed October 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR). Figures are estimated and preliminary. Total mortgage assets are inconsistent inside the exhibit ($10.77 billion in one table, $10.67 billion in others), so we do not use them. A separate filing dated October 23, 2026 carries a September 30, 2026 period and the file name of a 10-Q. We could read the directory listing only, not the contents. The audited-style figures have not been checked against the 10-Q, so treat every number above as the October 14 estimate. Paying out water while the hull takes on more. The deck stays level for a while. The waterline does not. Rate sensitivity The exhibit models a loss in both directions: about $4.2 million for a 50 basis point decline and about $21.0 million for a 50 basis point rise, including hedges. Against roughly $1.2 billion of equity, the larger figure is about 1.75 percent of book (our arithmetic). The portfolio is hedged against a drop and still exposed to a climb. The Bull Case Book is marked, not hidden. A 16.6 percent mark in one quarter is on the table. The 8-K shows the damage instead of burying it. Share count is shrinking. Shares fell from 194.7 million to 193.0 million between September 30 and October 14, 2026. The cause is not stated in what we read. If the stock trades below book, retiring shares adds to book per share. Price is NOT VERIFIED. Rate-fall exposure is small. A 50 basis point decline costs about $4.2 million per the exhibit, a rounding error against $1.2 billion of equity. The Bear Case The dividend outruns the earnings. The quarter lost $0.90 per share and paid $0.30. Book per share cannot fund that for long. The yield is mostly capital returned. $1.20 a year on $6.02 of book is 19.9 percent. Taxable earnings and return-of-capital split for 2026 is NOT VERIFIED, and that split is the real yield story. Rate-rise exposure is five times larger. About $21.0 million for a 50 basis point rise, versus $4.2 million for a fall. A bad rates week hurts more than a good one helps. The SharkWater Take I do not chase a 19.9 percent number on a book that just lost 16.6 percent. The payout is a rate on a shrinking base, and the next mark is a rate decision away. I would want the 10-Q, the November 10 dividend announcement, the live price against book, and the return-of-capital estimate before this is worth a trade. Until then it is an income story I am watching, not one I am taking. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Weekend Desk • Market Brief Dead Water: VIX 19.45 and a Watchlist With Nothing New to Read October 25, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front The Cboe VIX closed Friday, October 23, 2026 at 19.45, up 2.21 percent from 19.03. Per SEC EDGAR, none of the eight watchlist issuers we read has filed anything dated after October 22, 2026. The only recent one is a Nebius 6-K, already covered. There is no catalyst to trade into Monday from the filing tape. What the filing tape shows We pulled the SEC submissions record for each issuer on October 25, 2026. The table lists the most recent entry in each feed, not a verdict on what is coming. Ticker Latest EDGAR entry Form RKLB 2026-10-02 Form 4 NBIS 2026-10-22 6-K NVDA 2026-10-13 Form type not read MU 2026-10-15 Form type not read IREN 2026-10-13 Proxy materials OKLO 2026-09-11 424B5 / 8-K WULF 2026-09-16 Form type not read ASTS 2026-09-01 Form 4 Source: SEC EDGAR submissions data per issuer, read October 25, 2026. Form types missing where the read did not return them. One flag. The Rocket Lab feed ends at a Form 4 dated October 2, 2026. The company has issued press releases since, and a Neutron timing 8-K we noted earlier never appeared. Either the feed lags or there was no filing. We could not tell which, and a quiet feed is not proof of a quiet company. A flat calm tells you the wind is gone for now. It does not tell you the forecast. VIX at 19.45 A VIX near 19 is below 20 and prices a normal week, not a scare. Index volatility is not where the risk on this list lives. It lives in the single-name stories. We did not pull option chains for this brief. Anyone building a trade needs live quotes from their broker. The Bull Case No new dilution paper. No 424B or S-1 appeared in the feeds we read since Friday. Volatility is contained. VIX under 20 leaves room for a risk-on open if earnings season delivers. Cadence continues. Rocket Lab set its Q3 report for November 9, 2026 after the close, per its release. The Bear Case Absence of filings is not absence of risk. Feeds lag, and the Rocket Lab gap shows it. VIX rose on the day. A 2.21 percent uptick into the weekend is small, but it is the wrong direction. Coverage was partial. Newsrooms were blocked or errored, and half the watchlist was not re-read. The SharkWater Take I am not writing a thesis out of an empty tape. There is no filing worth trading and no setup worth forcing on a Sunday. I will wait for Monday's session to show where volume goes, then read the paper behind it. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading • Space Desk • Rocket Lab Cadence Rocket Lab Flies Electron No. 98 and Sets the Q3 Date October 24, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) launched its 98th Electron on October 23, 2026, the 19th of the year, for HawkEye 360 from New Zealand. The company says that moves it closer to a record 100 Electron launches. Third quarter results land after the close on Monday, November 9, 2026, with the call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. I found no primary-source price or volume data for this run, so I am not telling you how the stock reacted. What the Company Said The mission, named "We're Not Hawking Around," lifted three HAWK satellites to a 520 km low Earth orbit from Launch Complex 1 on October 23, 2026 at 8:11 p.m. New Zealand Daylight Time. It was the third Electron launch dedicated to HawkEye 360. Source: Rocket Lab press release, Mahia, New Zealand, October 23, 2026. Two other items from the company's own newsroom frame the next two weeks. On October 14, 2026 it published an update that adjusts the Neutron target launch timing. On September 30, 2026 it announced a 20-launch Electron contract with Synspective, which it called its largest-ever Electron commercial deal. Item Figure Date Electron launches, all-time 98 Oct 23, 2026 Electron launches, 2026 year to date 19 Oct 23, 2026 Synspective contract, launches 20 Sep 30, 2026 Q3 results release After close, call 5:00 p.m. ET Nov 9, 2026 Source: Rocket Lab investor relations news releases dated Sep 30, Oct 14, Oct 20 and Oct 23, 2026. No SEC filing was read for these items. The Filing Gap The EDGAR submissions feed for Rocket Lab Corp showed its latest filing as a Form 4 dated October 2, 2026. Earlier scans noted an 8-K tied to the October 14 Neutron update that never appeared in that feed. Press releases are not filings. Until the 8-K shows up, the Neutron timing language exists only in the company's own newsroom. A fishing boat that makes a run every day is easy to count. The question on November 9 is what the boat is hauling and how much it costs to run. The Bull Case Cadence is real. Nineteen launches in under ten months is a measurable operating record, not a slide. Contracted demand. A 20-launch Synspective deal, announced September 30, 2026, gives the manifest repeat customers. A dated catalyst. November 9 is on the calendar, so the numbers arrive on a schedule. The Bear Case Electron is not the thesis. A launch count says little about Neutron, and Neutron timing was adjusted on October 14, 2026. No price evidence. I could not source a primary price or volume reading, so I cannot say the market is rewarding the cadence. Unfiled disclosure. The feed gap above means one company statement lacks the legal weight of a filing. The SharkWater Take Electron launch 98 is good news and old news. I am not treating it as a setup. The stock trades on Neutron and the Iridium deal, and neither moved on this launch. I am waiting for November 9 and the 8-K gap to close before I write anything with a thesis in it. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of the dates given. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Data Center Desk • NBIS Financing Nebius Signs a $3.5 Billion Citi Bridge Loan Secured on Substantially All Assets. The AI Cloud Is Borrowing Short to Build Long. October 23, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Nebius Group (Nasdaq: NBIS) disclosed on October 22, 2026 a $3.5 billion senior secured term loan from Citi, signed October 17 and maturing October 16, 2027. The rate starts at Term SOFR plus 2.75 percent and steps up 0.25 points every 90 days to a cap of 3.50 percent. Collateral is substantially all assets of each borrower, including the shares of the US and Dutch borrowers. Nebius cites more than $40 billion of investment-grade customer commitments as the base for a later asset-backed deal. This is a one-year bridge, not permanent capital, and the step-up is a clock. I have no primary-source price or volume for NBIS today, so the market reaction is not covered here. What the Filing Says The 6-K is signed by the company secretary and dated October 22, 2026. Exhibit 99.1 is the press release. The terms below are from the 6-K itself. Item Term (per 6-K dated 2026-10-22) Facility $3.5B senior secured term loan, Citibank, N.A. lead arranger and lender Agreement date 2026-10-17 (bridge facility agreement) Maturity 2027-10-16 (364 days) Interest Term SOFR + 2.75%, rising 0.25% every 90 days, capped at 3.50% Prepayment Voluntary, no premium or penalty Collateral Substantially all assets of each borrower, incl. shares in the US and Dutch borrowers Covenant Minimum liquidity requirement, plus customary defaults Stated use GPU infrastructure build-out, data centers, general corporate Backlog cited More than $40B of long-term, investment-grade customer commitments Source: Nebius Group N.V. Form 6-K and Exhibit 99.1, sec.gov, filed 2026-10-22 (accession 0001104659-26-117978). No figure here comes from an aggregator. Why a Bridge Matters A 364-day loan is not a funding plan. It buys time. Nebius says the facility gives it more flexibility over the timing and structure of future capital raises, and points to the contracted backlog as the collateral story for an asset-backed financing. That tells you the permanent solution is still ahead. The step-up margin is built to push the borrower toward refinancing before the cap is reached. Prepayment carries no penalty, so a take-out can happen at any point. The minimum liquidity covenant is the term to watch. The 6-K does not state the dollar threshold in the summary I could read, so the amount is NOT VERIFIED. A bridge loan is a rope ladder thrown across a gap. It gets you over, but nobody builds a house on it. Context on the insider tape: the EDGAR submissions feed for Nebius also lists Form 4 filings dated October 21, 20, 19 and 16, 2026. I could not open the October 21 filing (accession 0001513845-26-000136), so who filed it and in which direction is NOT VERIFIED. The Bull Case Cheap for a secured loan. Starting spread of 2.75 points over SOFR, with prepayment allowed at no cost. Backlog is the anchor. Management cites more than $40 billion of investment-grade commitments behind the build. Flexibility. Near-term cash for GPUs and data centers lets Nebius pick the timing of its next raise. The Bear Case Short fuse. The loan matures October 16, 2027, and the margin steps up every 90 days. Everything is pledged. Substantially all assets of each borrower back the loan, which narrows room for later secured debt. Covenant risk. A minimum liquidity test on a fast-burning build is the tripwire. The threshold is not verified. The SharkWater Take I read this as a company that needs cash to honor the backlog and chose speed over price. That is a reasonable choice, and the disclosed terms are not distressed. It still moves Nebius from asking the equity market for money to owing a bank a full repayment inside a year. I am not taking a side on the stock off this filing. The setup I would want is the take-out: an asset-backed deal that replaces the bridge at a fixed, longer term. Until that shows up, this is a watch item, and the open questions are the liquidity covenant amount and the October 21 Form 4. Execution notes: none. No options chains were pulled and no premiums are quoted. VIX read 19.78 against a prior close of 19.03 (+0.75) on the Cboe page, timestamp displayed 12:15 PM on 2026-10-23, delayed at least 20 minutes, time zone not stated. Tight lines, SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Data Center Desk • AI Capex Meta Raised the Floor on 2026 Capex to $135 Billion. The AI Hardware Chain Just Got Its Receipt. October 22, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) reported Q3 2026 results on October 21, 2026: revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26 percent, and capital expenditures of $34.91 billion in the quarter. Full-year 2026 capex guidance is now $135 billion to $145 billion, narrowed from $130 billion to $145 billion. The ceiling did not move. The floor rose by $5 billion. Meta gave no full-year 2027 revenue outlook but said it will keep investing aggressively. I have no primary-source price data for how NVDA, MU, NBIS, IREN or WULF traded on the print, so this post covers the spend, not the reaction. What the Release Says The numbers below come from Meta’s earnings release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to its 8-K and dated October 21, 2026. Capex includes principal payments on finance leases. Q4 2026 revenue guidance is $73 billion to $76 billion, with currency a roughly 1 percent headwind to growth. Meta also expects Reality Labs losses to narrow to around $15 billion in 2027. Item Figure Q3 2026 revenue $64.60B, +26% YoY Q3 2026 capex (incl. finance lease principal) $34.91B FY2026 capex guide, new $135B to $145B FY2026 capex guide, prior $130B to $145B Q4 2026 revenue guide $73B to $76B FY2027 revenue outlook None provided Source: Meta Platforms 8-K Exhibit 99.1, sec.gov, dated 2026-10-21. No figure on this page comes from an aggregator. Why It Matters for the Desk Meta is one of the buyers whose budget sets the order book for the names on this watchlist: accelerators, memory, networking silicon and rented GPU capacity. A narrowed range that lifts the low end removes the bottom of the distribution. It does not add a new top. Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS) is the name on the list with the busiest insider tape this month. The EDGAR submissions feed for CIK 1513845 shows Form 4 filings dated October 21, 2026 (accession 0001513845-26-000136), October 20, October 19 and October 16. I could not open the October 21 filing, so who filed it and which way the trade went is NOT VERIFIED. A capex guide is a harbor master posting the tide for the season. It tells every boat owner how much water is coming. It does not tell you which boats float. The Bull Case The floor moved up. $135 billion is the new minimum in the guide, $5 billion above the prior low end. Spend is running at scale. $34.91 billion in one quarter, with revenue growing 26 percent to fund it. Management language is unchanged. Meta says it will keep investing aggressively through 2027. The Bear Case The ceiling is flat. The top of the range stayed at $145 billion. Narrowing is not raising. No 2027 revenue outlook. Without it, the market has no number to check 2027 spend against. Capex is not hardware revenue. Finance lease principal is inside the figure, and buildings, power and land are not chips. How much reaches the suppliers is not in the release. The SharkWater Take This is a quiet positive for the supply chain, not a catalyst. A higher floor with a flat ceiling is a company telling you it is not pulling back, and that is all it is telling you. I am not building a trade off the guide itself. The edge, if there is one, sits in the names where insiders are filing and the market has not yet digested the print. That means NBIS first. I want the October 21 Form 4 read and a primary-source price for the session before I say anything more. Until then this is a pass, and the open question is the NBIS filing. Execution notes: none. No options chains were pulled and no premiums are quoted. VIX read 18.11 against a prior close of 16.68 on the Cboe page this morning (delayed at least 20 minutes, timestamp as displayed 12:11 PM on 2026-10-22). Tight lines, SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.